Opinion: North Korea’s War talk is a cry for deft diplomacy from the US

Ford, G. (2024) Opinion: North Korea’s War talk is a cry for deft diplomacy from the US, South China Morning Post. Available at: https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3250319/pyongyang-war-footing-us-must-quickly-defuse-nuclear-flashpoints (Accessed: 01 February 2024).

North Korea’s nuclear programme is a symptom of weakness, not strength. The reality is that it is comprehensively outspent, outgunned and out-resourced by the South.

Seoul’s military budget dwarfs Pyongyang’s by at least a factor of 11. Bundle together Washington, Tokyo and Seoul and it’s more than 250 times. South Korea’s 10.33 per cent increase in its 2021 military budget exceeded the North’s annual military expenditure. And President Yoon Suk-yeol has plans for South Korea to be the world’s fourth largest arms exporter by around 2030.

While there is a premium for Pyongyang in being a nuclear weapon state, it has little option. The regime faces external and internal threats. The external military threat is clearly being countered with nuclear deterrence. The internal threat is less a “magnolia revolution”, more a court quarrel. Kim Jong-un needs to keep the people who matter happy by providing bread and circuses! The circuses are there, but the bread requires economic growth.

The key growth restraints are energy and manpower. The nuclear programme answers both questions.

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